Dow Could Face Larger Declines
Troubling data points are pushing the markets down even more as the slowdown in China is “dramatic” while the emerging markets in Brazil and Russia are in “deep trouble,” said Patrick Morris, CEO of New York-based HAGIN Investment Management. Oil prices will not rise in the near term because of the prolonged glut, while the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia has not subsided, leaving the high yield market in “deep trouble” with crude prices nearly bottoming out.
“Take that and combine a rising rate environment with the end of free money and you have to ask how anyone could possibly guess where U.S. equities should bottom out,” Morris said. The Dow could wind up hitting a low of 12,300 to 13,300, which is the 2007 range, Morris predicts. “It is highly probable in my opinion if there is no additional stimulus from the Fed,” he said. “My guess is that we need to take the market down about 30% from peak to trough.” “The Dow will get beat up worse than most suspect,” said Mike Chadwick, CEO of Chadwick Financial Advisors in Unionville, Conn. “Many indicators are pointing down and people’s attitudes are just beginning to change. It’s been 'buy the dip’ for years, and once ‘buy the dip’ fails to work, people will get scared quickly.”
The markets were rising for “too long” and instead of buying on the dip, investors should start to “sell the rip or short the rip,” Chadwick said. Whether or not the economy is headed into a recession remains unknown, but the commodity markets are “saying that we are in a recession and a pretty nasty one,” Morris said. “I am not sure that the data really supports an economic recession, but there is certainly the possibility that inventories have increased to the point where negative earnings revisions will be the norm.” The current global issues point toward a “major market collapse,” and the Dow could drop by 50%, said Steve Lewit, president of Wealth Financial Advisor in Buffalo Grove, Ill. “It’s a matter of ‘when’ it’s going to happen,” he said. “The question is will it be a fast or slow recovery since there is a strong possibility that this market may recover quite slower than recoveries of the past.”
How To Protect Investments
Developing a diversified portfolio and maintaining a” strong Navy SEALs-type mind set” aids investors over time, Ulin said. “Making money does not happen in bull markets," he said. "It happens in how you manage your money and behavior in sideways markets and bear markets. If you cannot handle even a 5% loss you should not be investing.” Losses are incurred only when investors pull the plug and start selling their assets, said Edison Byzyka, vice president of investments for Hefty Wealth Partners in Auburn, Ind. Refraining from selling during extreme volatility and utilizing cash to buy stocks on a dip could “likely be the best approach to outpacing the markets,” he said. Ignoring the steep declines, even major corrections, will stem any massive losses, said Dave Louton, a finance professor at Bryant University in Smithfield, R.I.
“Once a major market adjustment is underway, it is difficult to get out without damage and then of course, you face the problem of when to get back in,” he said. “There is a saying in the market that one should ‘buy the dips and sell the rips’, but if you end up letting panic affect your decision-making process, you will end up selling on declining prices and buying as prices rise.” Sitting out on the sidelines means the opportunity to gain during a rebound is also lost, said Shomari Hearn, a vice president of Scarsdale, N.Y.-based Palisades Hudson Financial Group. “Long-term investors should view the recent market downturn as an opportunity to buy equities on sale,” he said.
Dow Could Face Larger Declines
Troubling data points are pushing the markets down even more as the slowdown in China is “dramatic” while the emerging markets in Brazil and Russia are in “deep trouble,” said Patrick Morris, CEO of New York-based HAGIN Investment Management. Oil prices will not rise in the near term because of the prolonged glut, while the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia has not subsided, leaving the high yield market in “deep trouble” with crude prices nearly bottoming out.
How To Protect Investments
Developing a diversified portfolio and maintaining a” strong Navy SEALs-type mind set” aids investors over time, Ulin said. “Making money does not happen in bull markets," he said. "It happens in how you manage your money and behavior in sideways markets and bear markets. If you cannot handle even a 5% loss you should not be investing.” Losses are incurred only when investors pull the plug and start selling their assets, said Edison Byzyka, vice president of investments for Hefty Wealth Partners in Auburn, Ind. Refraining from selling during extreme volatility and utilizing cash to buy stocks on a dip could “likely be the best approach to outpacing the markets,” he said. Ignoring the steep declines, even major corrections, will stem any massive losses, said Dave Louton, a finance professor at Bryant University in Smithfield, R.I.
“Once a major market adjustment is underway, it is difficult to get out without damage and then of course, you face the problem of when to get back in,” he said. “There is a saying in the market that one should ‘buy the dips and sell the rips’, but if you end up letting panic affect your decision-making process, you will end up selling on declining prices and buying as prices rise.” Sitting out on the sidelines means the opportunity to gain during a rebound is also lost, said Shomari Hearn, a vice president of Scarsdale, N.Y.-based Palisades Hudson Financial Group. “Long-term investors should view the recent market downturn as an opportunity to buy equities on sale,” he said.
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